Another way to look at college football schedules

A lot of rather passionate posturing has gone on in the national media, particularly from those who support one of the teams that's NOT in the BCS National Championship Game (or whatever the heck we're supposed to call the Jan.7 OSU-LSU tilt), about Ohio State's weak schedule this year. They use various disparagements about the strength of the schedule to try to sell a case that instead of Ohio State, some other team (often USC, or Georgia, or Kansas) should be competing for the national title. Beano Cook (link) makes this point in his signaturely annoying way in a recent ESPN chat (insider login may be required, I can't keep up with ESPN's rules). But, apart from giving the sTHs (that's 'sports Talking Heads') something to blather on about instead of showing sports, I can't quite figure this whole tempest of indignation out.

Poof! You've been made the Athletic Director of a BCS conference school, with a good football program. What's your job? Is it to satisfy a group of sTHs? I think it's probably to maximize the success and revenue of your athletic teams. And in major college football, what's the best way to do this? It's to get into a BCS bowl game. How do you get into a BCS Bowl game? You win your games. It's not complicated. Go undefeated in a major conference (Hawaii, you may have hurt the smaller conferences a bit with your AWFUL showing), and you're quite likely in the National Championship, and even one loss will likely still put you in a Jan 1 or later bowl game. And your school (you're the Athletic Director, remember?) gets a LOT of dollars, and a lot of press, which helps recruiting, which helps you do well again next year, and the virtuous cycle continues. For those of you who like math, think of it this way. Assume you've got a 99% chance of beating a patsy on your schedule (the odd Appalachian State thing WILL happen), and a 60% chance of beating a "quality" opponent. With four non-conference games to schedule, what are your chances of sweeping four patsies? 96%. How about four "quality" opponents? 13% See the difference? Especially when the payoff is in the millions for a big bowl appearance? Even splitting the difference, and putting two "quality" opponents on the schedule drops your chances of being 4-0 to 35%.

So, unless it's more important to an AD that Mark May and Beano Cook think he's putting good enough opponents on the schedule than that his program brings in revenue, and trophies, and press, and improved recruiting rep, I don't see why there's not a lineup at the door of all of the various directional Michigan/Kentucky/Illinois schools come scheduling times. The games may be no fun to watch, or commentate on, but they do right by the schools, and their athletic departments. And if you're thinking, "it shouldn't be about the money" then you really haven't been paying attention to this whole BCS thing.

Peace.